Why do young workers quit their first job? Identification of the risk factors using the Cox model and survival trees

Wioletta Grzenda; Agnieszka Marszałek

doi:https://doi.org/10.59139/ws.2024.03.2

Wioletta Grzenda Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Polska / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Poland ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2226-4563 , Agnieszka Marszałek Badaczka niezależna / Independent ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4906-6484 Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician, vol. 69, 2024, 3, s. 18-37 Opublikowano online: 2 kwietnia 2024 DOI https://doi.org/10.59139/ws.2024.03.2 Sposób cytowania: Grzenda, W., Marszałek, A. (2024). Why do young workers quit their first job? Identification of the risk factors using the Cox model and survival trees. Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician, 69(3), 18–37. https://doi.org/10.59139/ws.2024.03.2.

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ARTYKUŁ

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STRESZCZENIE

According to Statistics Poland’s data, the situation of young people in the Polish labour market has improved significantly in recent years. Therefore, on the one hand, it is easier for young people entering the labour market to find a job, and on the other, it is increasingly difficult for employers to keep such people in their organisation. The aim of this study is to identify and assess individual characteristics of young workers and work-related factors that affect the length of the time they spend in their first job. The study is based on data for 2019 and 2020 from Statistics Poland’s Labour Force Survey. It is of key importance in the research on the professional activity of young people to take into account in modelling the high volatility of their characteristics over time. Therefore, we used the Cox model with time-variant variables to identify factors of risk of quitting a young employee’s first job. One of the findings of the study was that people with higher education were more likely to quit their jobs than people with lower-level education. As regards work-related factors, in addition to the type of employment contract, the weekly working time and holding or not a managerial position were the important ones affecting the decision to continue or quit. Furthermore, groups of employees homogeneous in terms of the duration of their first job were identified using survival trees. We found that employees with fixed-term contracts were less likely to quit their jobs than those with permanent contracts, but working part-time.

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

labour market, first job, young employees, Cox model, survival trees

JEL

J62, J64, C14, C41

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